Good Bye George W.
Heute Abend habe ich im Büro live die Vereidigung von Barak Obama zum 44. Präsidenten der USA mitverfolgt. Somit kann ich nun auch den "Good Bye George W." Count Down vom Blog entfernen, der knapp 1.5 Jahre auf dem Blog war. Mission accomplished! ;-)
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9 Kommentare:
Wünschen wir Obama, dass er es schafft, es besser als Bush zu machen !
LONDON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - As a gas supply row with Russia rages, some market participants are refusing to sell protection for Ukraine's sovereign debt without upfront payment -- reflecting mounting concerns over its debt and currency.
On top of worsening relations with its giant neighbour, Ukraine has also suffered from a collapse in its steel, chemical and construction sectors, a slump in its currency and mounting banking problems leading to a deepening recession.
Russian gas giant Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Ukraine on New Year's Day in a row over alleged unpaid bills and pricing, affecting supplies to much of the European Union.
"Ukraine retains its basket case status, with the ongoing gas dispute and potential higher costs doing little to encourage the deflated interest appetite," said Commerzbank emerging markets trader Paul Timmons.
The cost of Ukrainian government debt protection in the credit default swaps market has soared from around 400 basis points in August, shortly before the Russia-Georgia war began spooking investors, to more than 3,000 in recent weeks.
That implies it would cost an investor $3 million a year over five years to protect only $10 million of debt.
However, specialist CDS monitor CMA DataVision said on Wednesday some market participants were now demanding an upfront payment with a midpoint of 54.75 percent.
That means a buyer would now need to pay $5.475 million upfront plus $500,000 a year over five years.
Iceland's five-year CDS also switched to being quoted on an upfront basis shortly before the country's currency, economy and banking systems collapsed completely last year.
LOOKING RISKY
Ratings agency Fitch says Ukraine had $13.5 billion outstanding debt in October, of which $11.5 billion was foreign currency debt including state energy firm Naftogaz.
Ukrainian sovereign debt spreads widened 148 basis points to 2,875 bps over US Treasuries on the JP Morgan EMBI+ index <11EMJ> on Wednesday, denoting a rising perception of risk on a day when broader emerging sovereign debt spreads <11EMJ> actually narrowed 3 bps.
The yield on Ukraine's $1 billion Eurobond due 2016 has exploded out from less than 7 percent at the beginning of 2008 -- when Ukraine was touted as a promising market -- to up to 25 percent in recent weeks.
State gas firm Naftogaz was in technical default on a $500 million Eurobond after failing to deliver 2007 accounts but finally delivered them shortly before the New Year.
Ukraine had said it was aiming for new Eurobonds this year but its crisis is seen making that impossible. Emerging borrowers Colombia, Brazil, Turkey and the Philippines have all announced new issues this week as global market conditions improved, but Ukraine would probably be seen too dangerous.
The hryvnia currency was Europe's worst performing after Iceland last year and at one stage in December had lost half its value before the government imposed capital controls and moved to intervene.
It was shown flat and barely traded at 8.3 to the dollar on the Reuters conversational dealing system on Wednesday, with local markets closed for Orthodox Christmas.
Ukraine's foreign currency reserves fell in December to $31.54 billion from $32.7 billion the previous month, central bank data showed on Tuesday. That put them only $0.3 billion higher than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) requirements set quarterly after the IMF agreed to lend Ukraine $16.4 billion in November.
Ukrainian currency forwards put the currency at 9.05 to the dollar in a month, 11.4 in six months and 13.3 in a year -- but emerging foreign exchange strategist John Harrison at Dresdner Kleinwort said they were barely traded.
"But it does show that everyone thinks the hryvnia is probably going to weaken further," he said. (Editing by Andy Bruce)
Ganz davon abgesehen, dass der Artikel von Reuters nicht zum Thema passt ("Good Bye George W."), wäre es vielleicht besser, wenn man sich auf die Sprache deutsch bei den Kommentaren einigt ?!
Ein bisschen Flexibilität kann verlangt werden, beim Thema Buisness
Hier, auf Deutsch für Deutsche und nicht Englisch sprechende Deutsche:
http://verlorenegeneration.wordpress.com/landerisiken-im-uberblick/
Come on, be a little bit more tolerant. As written in my bio I'm also speaking English and also English comments are very welcome!
Cheers,
Podvalov
Ich weiß nicht, ob es für die Diskussion hier förderlich wäre, wenn wir hier auch noch russisch oder französisch als Diskussionssprache einführen. Diese beiden Sprachen verstehen Sie auch, aber wie ist es mit dem Rest der Leser ? Wer hier auf englisch seine Kommentare abgibt, scheint ja auch deutsch zu verstehen, sonst würde er sich ja nicht an der Diskussion beteiligen. Also warum schreibt er dann nicht in deutsch, damit auch alle verstehen, was er sagen will ? Das würde ich Toleranz nennen!
Zum Schluss noch vielen Dank für den Link! Ist in meinen Favoriten gelandet. Und ich hoffe "Buisness" war nur ein Schreibfehler ;)
Den unter folgendem Link angegebenen Blog gibt es leider nur in Englisch, möchte aber mal behaupten, dass es einer der besten (wenn nicht der beste) zur generellen ökonomischen Lage der Ukraine ist. Im Übrigen auch leicht verständlich und äusserst interessante Analysen, die über kurzfristige Aussagen hinausgehen mit einem spannenden Autor, Edward Hughes:
http://ukraineeconomy.blogspot.com
Für alle Obama Jünger, die hier zahlreich vorhanden scheinen:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3KrdwnlBIs
Man sollte aber auch auf die protektionistischen Tenden von Obama hinweisen:
http://verlorenegeneration.wordpress.com/2009/01/30/kauf-amerikanisch/
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